This week
This week's plays
All games
How the tiers are set: every grade and projection uses only this season's games. Small disagreements with the market have been coin flips, so a pick needs a 4+ point edge to be a Lean, 8+ for Strong and 12+ for a LOCK, and only the three biggest spread edges each week can be LOCKs. Totals top out at Strong. The Results tab shows how each tier has done in this season's backtest and live. No pick is a sure thing.
Schedule
Every line
Spreads are for the home team, averaged across DraftKings and FanDuel. "Open" is the first number we saw this week.
Alert feed
Results
Every Lean or better, graded at the number it was called at.
Record by tier
Every Lean or better the dashboard shows is saved before kickoff and graded after the game at the number it was called at. Units assume a 1-unit bet at standard -110 prices, where 52.4% breaks even. CLV (closing line value) is how many points better our number was than the line at kickoff. It's the earliest honest sign of a real edge: a few weeks of wins can be luck, but beating the close week after week rarely is.
Backtest
What's working
Every Sunday the week's picks are graded and archived, then split by what the dashboard knew when it made them. The weekly AI review uses this to decide what to test next. Records under 30 picks are mostly luck, so they're grayed out.
Week by week
Every graded pick
Team grades
5.0 is FBS average and each point is half a standard deviation. Grades are adjusted for opponent and venue, ignore garbage time, and weight the last four weeks a little more. Special teams uses field position (kick and punt game plus turnovers). Overall is 45% offense, 45% defense, 10% special teams. Select a team to compare it.